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Home > Proceedings / Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 36 > No. 11: IAAI-22, EAAI-22, AAAI-22 Special Programs and Special Track, Student Papers and Demonstrations

A Synthetic Prediction Market for Estimating Confidence in Published Work

February 1, 2023

Authors

Sarah Rajtmajer

The Pennsylvania State University


Christopher Griffin

The Pennsylvania State University


Jian Wu

Old Dominion University


Robert Fraleigh

The Pennsylvania State University


Laxmaan Balaji

The Pennsylvania State University


Anna Squicciarini

The Pennsylvania State University


Anthony Kwasnica

The Pennsylvania State University


David Pennock

Rutgers University


Michael McLaughlin

The Pennsylvania State University


Timothy Fritton

The Pennsylvania State University


Nishanth Nakshatri

The Pennsylvania State University


Arjun Menon

The Pennsylvania State University


Sai Ajay Modukuri

The Pennsylvania State University


Rajal Nivargi

The Pennsylvania State University


Xin Wei

Old Dominion University


C. Lee Giles

The Pennsylvania State University


Proceedings:

No. 11: IAAI-22, EAAI-22, AAAI-22 Special Programs and Special Track, Student Papers and Demonstrations

Volume

Issue:

Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 36

Track:

AAAI Demonstration Track

Downloads:

Download PDF

Abstract:

Explainably estimating confidence in published scholarly work offers opportunity for faster and more robust scientific progress. We develop a synthetic prediction market to assess the credibility of published claims in the social and behavioral sciences literature. We demonstrate our system and detail our findings using a collection of known replication projects. We suggest that this work lays the foundation for a research agenda that creatively uses AI for peer review.

DOI:

10.1609/aaai.v36i11.21733


AAAI

Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 36



Topics: AAAI

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